Europe breathed a deep collective sigh of relief on Monday, as the crisis triggered by the presentation of a new comprehensive peace framework for achieving ceasefire appeared – temporarily – to have been contained. A Washington representative spoke of "substantial progress" after bilateral negotiations in Geneva. On Monday night, the Kremlin made its response: a renewed assault of rocket attacks on Kyiv.
The Pattern of Peace Talks and Military Action
The succession of conflicting incidents captured the harsh reality of the current period. By day, negotiation efforts are conducted: positive announcements are released from various governments. Immense energy is allocated on containing certain initiatives. By night, Moscow forcefully demonstrates the world that, for them, military action persists as the key method for achieving "resolution".
Nocturnal Warfare
As military strikes progressed into the early hours of Tuesday, the current condition of Ukraine's defenselessness was exposed. Ukraine is capable of detecting rocket firings from across the border, a ability afforded by current data. From witness perspectives, Ukrainian air force fighter jets that had been deployed to engage hostile aerial threats roared overhead – advanced fighter aircraft supplied to Ukraine by Western partners.
Soon thereafter, Kyiv's missile defense thundered: several firings targeted at a incoming threat. This was a advanced protection mechanism at work, most likely supplied through allied countries. Every launch jolts you unexpectedly, shaking the windows. The brief panic quickly gives way to grim resignation: maybe the approaching threat won't hit its mark this time, sparing the city from ruin and further power outages.
Continuous Dangers
Not long after, a heavy machine gun opened up on a aerial vehicle close by, part of a rapid response unit – most likely imported technology. Unfortunately, the shots failed to hit the enemy aircraft – it continued its flight toward its destination.
Intermittently, this persisted until dawn. Kyiv greeted the morning news: several casualties, destruction and heating outages in numerous residences as a result of the nocturnal offensive. As customarily, everyone still went about their day – living the war. But those 24 hours illustrated Ukraine's critical military reliance on external assistance – a need that regional partners are demonstrably unable to fill in the near term.
Ineffective Peace Efforts
The comprehensive proposal from Washington sparked intense emotion, discussion and deep concern – and briefly redirected concern from Ukraine's major integrity crisis in years. Yet, we have witnessed similar scenarios, after previous diplomatic encounters and bilateral conferences.
Every new approach from US leadership follows the same pattern: a political offensive against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with allied governments, effectively counters. They contain the crisis but never actually secure success. This cycle will, undoubtedly, continue.
Political Considerations
It is easy to blame particular leaders of repeatedly advocating Kremlin's demands. But that does not seem to be the entire situation. American leadership works based on a premise understood by experienced diplomats: you cannot secure via talks what you have lost on the battlefield. The American government presumes that it is unrealistic to force Russia to surrender the territory that it presently holds in Ukraine's occupied territories.
The challenge is that while recognising this factual reality, US leadership does minimal to discourage Russia, through statements or actions, from believing that the situation will not evolve additionally in its benefit in the coming year.
Conflicting Perspectives
Therefore, Russian leadership is confident that the clock favors them – that Ukraine and its supporters are coming close to fatigue. Their motivation to accept conditions that does not give them the maximum possible gain is close to zero. There may be many attempts to end hostilities, but they will persist as long as Russia's government remains supremely confident in the outcome.
On the contrary, Ukraine's government believes that Ukraine can still endure, slowly losing lives and land but averting a complete military breakdown until conditions improve in its favour.
Present Conditions
Objectively, there are no actual prerequisites for a truce. Now, subjective factors are coming into play: political desires to negotiate peace and achieve global acclaim, and Ukrainian leadership's double obstacles – on one hand, not to distance important partners, and on the other, to rally Ukrainians around the flag against any proposal Kyiv finds unsuitable, so that their attention does not shift toward domestic problems. And although their task will now be much harder after recent developments, it remains very improbable that this will change their overall approach.
These opposing factors are influencing discussions.
Summary and Prospects
It took a mere seven days to kill the suggested clauses of the current initiative. Assertive and inconsistent approach of the matter by US administration, pushback by Ukraine and the rest of Europe, along with pacifying measures of representatives, and finally, latest revelations, all served their function.
While new initiatives based on established approaches are imminent, Kyiv, London and other European capitals should draw one fundamental conclusion: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to counter negotiation assaults from Washington that are rooted in Kremlin requirements and demonstrate specific hesitation to modify developments, if they stand together and strengthen their defence capabilities at a considerably quicker tempo. If they do, no combination of diplomatic or military actions will be able to break them. In the meantime, Ukraine's capability to defend against evening bombardments will, for the foreseeable future, mainly require ongoing international assistance.
