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Mounting concerns have emerged regarding the chance of warfare involving East African countries, the Ethiopian government and the Eritrean government, as confrontational discourse has intensified in the last month.

What Has Ethiopian Officials Said?

Ethiopia's, being landlocked, demands for access to the Red Sea through Eritrean territory has sparked a fierce war of words.

PM Abiy Ahmed initially stated publicly in 2023 that his government's maritime access was an crucial concern, remarks that Eritrea dismissed.

Ties between the both governments have frequently been strained. Following a long-standing battle for independence, Eritrea, which has a long maritime frontage, legally broke away from Ethiopian rule in the early 1990s, leaving it cut off from the sea.

Five years later, a border war started in which numerous people died.

Latest Comments from Ethiopia's Government

Abiy and military leader Field Marshal Birhanu Jula have publicly asserted ownership of Eritrean coastal city of the port of Assab – about 60km from the boundary - and hinted at the desire to seize it militarily.

Recently, Abiy said the country's "mistake" of being denied passage to the Red Sea as a because of Eritrean independence would be "rectified soon".

Ethiopia's ambassador to Kenya, retired Gen Bacha Debele, said that Assab was "belonging to Ethiopia" and would be restored "by force".

Eritrea's Reaction to the Claims

In the face of continuous challenges from Ethiopia, Eritrea's response has been limited to concise remarks on online platforms from Information Minister Yemane G..

He has rejected Ethiopian requests for sea access calling it "dangerous" and a "harmful plan" of "territorial claims" – a policy of retaking former lands.

Government spokespeople warned on 16 September that moves to validate "blatant hostility" would have major implications for the Ethiopian government and its regional partners and is a "limit that should not be crossed|violated|breached".

Defense Movements on the Ground

Currently, there are little evidence of large-scale army activities in the frontier regions between the two countries.

However, in Ethiopia, national TV has broadcast graduation ceremonies of numerous trainees at multiple army bases.

The director of personnel division of the defense force, the officer, commented lately in an interview that the military was in a "secure situation" as "numerous of young people" were joining it, which he said was "a message to our opponents".

Previous Origins of the Tension

For decades from 1890, Eritrea was administered by colonial powers.

Following the end of Italian rule, it was then managed by the British military before evolving into a associated territory of Ethiopia.

But in the early 1960s Emperor Haile Selassie I ended this system and the region became fully incorporated into Ethiopia.

A thirty-year internal conflict ensued, ending with military reversal in 1991. Autonomy was then confirmed by voters in a referendum in 1993.

For a few years in the 1990s, there were friendly connections between the leadership in Addis Ababa and Eritrea's capital, but they clashed over the exact location of their mutual frontier, resulting in war in 1998.

Even though this concluded in a truce in 2000, it was partially applied, and the both countries continued at odds.

This situation improved in 2018, when Abiy made gestures to Eritrean President Isaias Afwerki. The both leaders endorsed a declaration that the conflict was over – a action that won the Prime Minister the prestigious award.

The two governments were then partners in Ethiopia's recent civil war in the northern region.

Yet diplomatic connections have since broken down anew.