Ten years following the UK entered into a rushed public vote that divided the country and caused chaos, a advisory comes from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Authorities and voters sleepwalked into Brexit and the similar may happen with a national vote on a united Ireland, initiating disturbances for which nobody is ready.
That is the message from two prominent commentators from both sides of the Irish border who have teamed up to scrutinise the pros and cons of Northern Ireland departing the UK to establish a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Establishments Unprepared
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have concluded that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are woefully unprepared for a possibly tense and seismic public vote.
"The key takeaway of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that stuff can arise suddenly and can gain traction rapidly," the commentator said. "In my opinion that the political architecture of our archipelago remains very unstable."
Book Publication Seeks to Provoke Discussion
The team have examined the political, financial and cultural reasons for any constitutional change in a publication, The Case For and Against Unification, published by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to encourage dialogue on the issue with a tour of speaking events that will take them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What concerns everyone, or must worry everybody, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," stated the analyst.
"We do not want a national vote on a binary, ambiguous question whose results have not been spelled out because then you land with an highly divided society where the losing side are resistant to defeat and the people who have won lack clarity exactly what it is that they have won."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland official must arrange a public vote on Irish unification if it is indicated that a most voters would approve.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists claim this point is looming, and a organisation named pro-unification advocates has rallied support, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions play down the likelihood, making it uncertain when or if there will be a referendum.
Insufficient Informed Dialogue
Ideological statements supporting and opposing unity has hidden the absence of serious debate, stated McBride.
"Many are supportive or opposed the idea but the concrete planning which may surpass that to achieve it has largely not occurred. Much has taken place in scholarly circles but scarcely any politicians or advocates are willing to participate with even the essentials. For instance, which kind of country would you want? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Volume's Strategy
In the book, none of the commentators supports unification or the existing arrangement. Both composes two essays that seek objectivity in laying out the case for a united Ireland and the argument against, gathering economic and social figures, historical precedents and structural examples.
Debates cover identity markers, taxes, healthcare systems, retirement funds, public liabilities and the danger of pro-UK militancy. The goal is to inform and encourage dialogue.
"Considerable attention exists in the subject but there is still lacking a discussion," stated the writer. "Debate suggests an acknowledgement of the idea that there may exist valid points on both sides."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A public vote in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the Republic of Ireland, where voters report they support unification but refuse paying higher taxes or implementing a new flag to recognise pro-UK communities' British identity.
"Authorities in Dublin does need to work out what the proposal from nationalist groups is beyond just saying: 'We want a unified Ireland and we welcome you'," stated the commentator.
Probability of Referendum
The journalist considers a referendum in his generation is probable and that it may take place suddenly. "There might be just a mad or a poor or a feckless official who states: 'Let's just do this and get it out of the way.'"
Both nationalists and pro-UK supporters have credible, justified perspectives, he stated. "Somebody will win in this matter and somebody will ultimately not succeed but both parties has got important lessons to gain from the opposing arguments."
Request for Broader Dialogue
Westminster should engage with the debate, said O’Toole. "This is about Britain. It is a UK matter equally as it is an Irish issue."