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Usually, the NFL's Head Coach of the Year honor follows a straightforward script. It frequently acts as a type of mea culpa. Sorry we underestimated your squad in our preseason forecasts.

In theory, it's a direct path: the skipper who oversaw the most dramatic improvement is handed the award. In practice, it sparks an yearly discussion about preseason outlooks and whether we're actually honoring superior leadership or simply the greatest shock.

Yet the current field is distinctly different. The pool of contenders is unusually deep. It has been the campaign of resurgences. The NFL has been chaotic, with reigning conference champions falling away and longtime underperformers ascending collectively. Under an typical year, a coach guiding the Denver Broncos to the top of the conference would make him the stone-cold favorite. But in such a wild and entertaining year, he's up against five other elite coaches.

Below is how the projected ballot ought to look.

5) The Chicago Bears Coach, His Team, Their Record

Voters for Coach of the Year selectors adore QBs. They always have. Sean McVay in 2017. Another in 2020. A third in 2022. Should you fix a quarterback, you're well on your way home.

The Bears' head coach didn't merely corrected Caleb Williams; he's unleashed him. In the right system, Williams has been given the chance to display his special talent. Since Week 9, the Bears rank fourth in offensive Expected Points Added per play. That's not a lucky run – it's prolonged excellence. Under his guidance, the quarterback has become more confident, less reckless, and has willingly surrendered to the gameplan instead of freelancing. It is an attack constructed entirely in Johnson's image: a physical run game, a consistent dose of play-action passes and a imaginative passing attack that frees wide-open targets all over the field. The QB has capitalized. And when clear throws haven't been there, he's been capable to spin big plays out of broken plays.

The coach came to the Bears with a specific offensive philosophy. Almost each bet – overhauling the offensive line, utilizing the pass-catchers, turning Williams into a timing-based thrower – has paid off. This is uncommon for a first-year skipper. And it's even more uncommon still for a leader who entered the organization with the kind of hype Johnson did. For two straight cycles, he was the most sought-after name on the head coaching carousel. However when it comes to hiring a leader, there are zero sure things. Somehow, Johnson has met the hype – and even exceeded them. He's proven not just to be a offensive genius but the kind of culture builder that can inject fresh energy into an franchise.

During a typical season, Johnson would be the runaway favorite. Yet this isn't a typical year!

The area where Johnson's candidacy runs slightly into trouble is on the defensive side. The Bears presently rank in the bottom third in defensive success rate. They are relying on turnovers, and takeaways are famously inconsistent. Coaches can stress ball disruption, but nobody can ensure it. He is on the list because the offensive production is legitimate. He's ranked lower because luck is doing too much of the defense's heavy lifting. If not for a couple breaks of the ball, the team would be several wins behind. It's been an exceptional transformation, and the core is established for long-term winning. However he comes up short here.

4) Liam Coen, His Team, 12-4

The Jaguars' coach is in a comparable position to Johnson. He's another first-time leader who has orchestrated a swift turnaround. Over the stretch run of the season, he has his franchise quarterback playing the best overall football of his professional life. And he's also spearheaded the transformation of a defensive unit that now sits at fifth in the NFL in Expected Points Added per play.

What's more impressively, Coen has excelled at the intangibles stuff, which wasn't a guarantee after his initial press conference appearances and some of his offseason moves.

The coach walked into Jacksonville with an exceptionally raw coaching staff. In contrast to other coaches, who surrounded themselves with the perfect staff cocktail of new ideas and veteran savvy, he trusted first-timers. From the leader on down to coordinators to assistant coaches, the Jags are stocked with first-timers. That type of approach is intriguing on paper, but frequently fails in reality – as past failures are a cautionary tale – because everybody is learning a new job on the fly. But Coen has managed to bring the entire group and all elements into sync.

After an initial strong beginning, there was a risk that the season would go off the track. A mid-year collapse caused the team stumbling once more. That's typically when coaches panic and change too much. Coen did not. Rather, he simplified things. The offense stopped pursuing home-run answers and started hunting consistent ones. Coen refocused the attack around his playmakers and the ground attack, and asked Lawrence to use his mobility more often.

The outcomes are clear. The Jaguars have won seven games consecutively and will be the conference's number three playoff seed. Coen receives the tiniest knock in the rankings because he inherited a skilled team, but he has proven he can get the most out of that roster.

3) The Seattle Seahawks Coach, His Team, 13-3

Every Strong of the Year narrative has a hinge decision. For the Seahawks coach, it was his quarterback choice.

Parting ways from a veteran, bringing in a different signal-caller and pairing him with an innovative offensive coordinator might have ended the campaign in October. Rather, it shaped it. Through the mid point of the year, the new QB was an MVP front-runner. He has fallen away since that time, slipping to 23rd in EPA per dropback over the second half of the schedule, placing him just a single place ahead of peers.

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